Five trends for 2016

• LARGER PRIVATE ROUNDS IN THE TECH SPACE
Growth investments in internet-related companies stand at $21.9 billion so far in 2015, up 64% on 2014.

• IT WILL BE TOUGH TO BETTER THE 2014 TRADE SALE TOTAL
The trade sale total has dropped from $43.7 billion to $28.9 billion, but it is still higher than the 10-year average.

• THE IPO TOTAL WILL NOT BE TOPPED, BUT WATCH OUT FOR VOLATILITY
Yes, but we were looking in the wrong place, having cited the US and Australia as potential concerns. Rather, volatility in China has been the primary cause of unrest in markets across the region.

• JUDGMENT DAY FOR INDIAN PRIVATE EQUITY
With even more capital raised in 2015 and the Indian economy among the fastest-growing globally, there is reason to be cheerful. However, some LPs say that the jury is still out on Indian private equity and economists may say the same about economic reforms.

• A BIG YEAR FOR AUSTRALIAN INFRASTRUCTURE
Nearly $12 billion has been deployed across infrastructure, telecom and utilities, but most of it came from just one deal. So 2014 could have been even bigger.

Which brings us to the five trends for 2016...

• A BIG YEAR FOR AUSTRALIAN INFRASTRUCTURE
Yes, this again. Following the $7.4 billion privatization of TransGrid, the New South Wales government has said it plans to push ahead with sales of other electricity transmission assets. Queensland may follow suit as state governments increasingly look to brownfield privatizations as a means of funding greenfield projects. However, as 2015 has shown, deal flow is large but lumpy.

• INCREASED BIFURCATION IN THE FUNDRAISING MARKET
Between January and mid-December 2015, $6.2 billion was committed to Asia-focused buyout funds, the lowest total since 2009. With Bain Capital, PAG Asia and Hony Capital all expected to have final closes around the $3 billion mark, buyout fundraising will be stronger in 2016. At the same time, the middle market space, populated by funds of $750 million to $1.5 billion will continue to thin out.

• NO RECORD-BREAKING BUYOUTS
Twice in 2015, the title of Asia's largest-ever PE buyout changed hands. Given that big auctions are flagged up well in advance, a similar-sized deal for completion in 2016 would probably already being talked about. We may see more control deals in Asia, particularly in the $500 million to $1 billion range, but there will not be a Homeplus Mk2.

• A UNICORN WILL DIE
Death might be a somewhat extreme description, but it is not unreasonable to suggest that one or more of the 32 unicorns (start-ups with valuations in excess of $1 billion) said to be resident in Asia will at least merge. It has already happened with Didi Kuaidi and Meituan Dianping. This is part of a broader rationalization in the tech sector, characterized by more realistic valuation expectations and business models that look beyond growth at any cost.

• A RENMINBI RESURGENCE
Fundraising for renminbi-denominated vehicles slumped from $34.7 billion in 2011 to $16.6 billion in the first nine months of 2015, with state-backed policy funds the main actors. However, domestic capital markets reforms will spur renewed interest. Renminbi funds that can help internet companies transfer from offshore to onshore entities with a view to local listings are likely to be a particular area of focus.

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• Topics
• Exits
• Fundraising
• Venture
• Buyouts
• Renminbi fund
• Greater China
• PAG
• China
• Infrastructure
• Trade sale
• Bain Capital Asia
• IPO
• Fundraising
• buyout
• Exit
• Renminbi