
VIDEO: The World Bank's Ulrich Bartsch
Examining the short- and long-term prospects of Asia Pacific’s economy, Senior Economist Macro at the World Bank’s India Office Ulrich Bartsch tells AVCJ TV that markets’ future health will largely be determined by their young labor force, which may lead to a reshuffle that positions countries such as India in a strong place
Bartsch, who maintains a focus on India, says that the market's youthful population will work to its advantage at a time when global economic powerhouses such as Japan and Germany may be on the decline.
"In the long term the prospects for Asia, and especially for India, are very good. India has a young and growing population and at some point it will actually be one of the last countries with a young and growing population," he says. "All other countries that are further along in the demographic transition will move to labor shortages. We already see that in Japan - they have a huge problem with an over-aging population, with a declining labor force by something like 15% only in the last 20 years. Germany will soon get there, but even China will get there because they had a very radical population control policy in the ‘70s."
In terms of India's position in relation to a booming China, Bartsch notes that, with its current growth rate, India has the potential to overtake China's momentum in the coming generations - although, "China, of course, will be still richer."
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